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Consensus Ukraine (commentators + analysts)

After the WEF meetings as well as Ramstein meetings, my task this morning was to get up to date with what the analysts and commentators say may be a point of change around Ukraine.  I analytically listened to a number of the more reliable commentators and analysts:  Mercouris, Berletic, Gonzalo Lira for his ability to see the outliers, and a number more, even Scott Ritter.  So, these are my conclusions from my environmental scan.

Medvedev says:

Meeting in Ramstein and the allocation of heavy weapons to Kyiv leaves no doubt that our enemies will indefinitely try to wear us down, or rather, destroy us. And they have enough weapons. If necessary, they will start producing new ones. Therefore, there is no need for illusions. What are the conclusions from this? First, it will be very difficult. Secondly, in the event of a protracted conflict, at some point a new military alliance will form from those countries that the Americans and their pack of castrated dogs got. This has always happened in the history of mankind during long wars. And then the States will finally throw old Europe and the remnants of the unfortunate Ukrainians, and the world will again come to a state of equilibrium.

Unless, of course, it’s too late.

SmoothieX12 said recently:

P.S. If rumors about the use of Gremlins in 404 are confirmed, we need to rethink geopolitics completely.  Plus upgraded version of 3M22 Zircons with the range of around 2,500 kilometers.

Generally, in the wider milieu, the expectation of a Russian major advance has lessened.  A few weeks ago, everyone seemed to be saying that a Russian advance is coming, when the ground is frozen, or when this or that condition is met, and now, this language has disappeared from the discussions.   The only indicator of value here, is that we still don’t know what the Russian Command is thinking or doing.  All we know, is that like clockwork every morning:  “The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.”

The war of attrition is continuing at this moment and we may see massive missile blasts again.

Yet, there is a sense, everyone senses that there is a change in the winds.  I propose that this may be so, but this wind of change may be only that of all the hot air from WEF, that changed into a Ukraine forum, and Ramstein, which showed a complete inability to really do something, anything.  They are outmatched, outplayed, and outmaneuvered.  Zelenski fatigue is clearly setting in.  The economic attack on Russia, as well as the Ukraine proxy is not doing what the west planned for.  Their plans are flat, incoherent, and cannot be defended any longer.

So, Russia is not moving.  The West really wants to move, but where to and how?  Russia has complete escalation dominance.  The west is trying to cheat their allies regarding tanks to Ukraine.  We don’t know how many Poles are fighting, but there are a good number of them.  We don’t know how many other ‘awol’ westerners are fighting, but there are a sizable number of those.  Ukrainians are being slaughtered by the day.

Short-term, I don’t see Russia making any other moves but what they have been doing, as they have the west in check, in zugzwang or in sailing terms, in irons.  Mr Lavrov made a comment:  “The war with the West is no longer hybrid, but almost a real hot war.”  This is what Russia is waiting for, but she will not escalate for this.  I guess Russia is going to exhaust even all the commentators and analysts.

The move is a western move.  We will wait awhile for that one because they suffer from twirly eyeballs in fear.

 

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AHH
AHH
14 days ago

It is bizarre for the 99% of us on the sidelines remotely watching this drama in the Ukraine. No world war was ever like this. It has aspects of the 1939-40 “Sitzkrieg” or sitting-war, with scant large-scale activity. Yet a couple hundred Ukies and NATO die every day! It is… Read more »

emersonreturn
emersonreturn
14 days ago
Reply to  AHH

thank you, amarynth, for your daily chronicle of events which unfold @ the speed of light & on all fronts. thank you, ahh, for your incisive strokes extracting the heart of each & sharing your diagnosis. alastair crooke’s weekly sunday post (usually expanded on his monday strategic culture analysis) touched… Read more »

AHH
AHH
14 days ago
Reply to  emersonreturn

Re: “after ruling the world for some hundreds of years why in the war you’ve been preparing for since the dawn leave yourself with nothing more than stupid?” Exactly! Why would control-freaks who spent generations working up to this moment of “Full Spectrum Dominance” risk it all with loose, incompetent… Read more »

emersonreturn
emersonreturn
14 days ago
Reply to  AHH

alastair crooke’s latest article on strategic culture is a very impressive reply & answers some of the questions which burbled throughout his other. in the SC post he ties in todd’s salient points but primarily focuses upon todd’s recognition of russia’s resilience. empire neglected to factor in resilience, a phenomenon… Read more »

Larchmonter445
Larchmonter445
14 days ago

Th present SMAO strategy is simple: locate the weak points along the 850 km front and move against that weakness, obliterating Ukies, mercs and machines. There is no turf quest strategy. The Russians will clean out village, town or small city and liberate the civilians, but these objects are opportunities… Read more »

Sudhi
Sudhi
13 days ago

Afghan mathematician and philosopher Sidiq Afgan, who also calls himself a fortune teller, shared his thoughts on completing the SVO. Sidik Afgan believes that in the next decade, the European Union will simply disappear. According to the mathematician, the collapse of the European Union will occur in the period from… Read more »

Anil
Anil
10 days ago

I see Kim Yo-jong, the sister of the North Korean leader, (she of the killer look), just issued a killer warning to the US.
Timing is everything, and this seems timely.