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It is now a NATO war

We start with Kadryov:

In recent days, we have been receiving information, but there hasn’t been concrete explanations. Well today, the Ministry of Defense clarified the information, because of which they left the cities of Izyum, Kupyansk, Balakleya. It was forced to preserve human lives. But that doesn’t mean anything. I, Ramzan Kadyrov, officially declare to you that all these cities will be returned back. We have our people there already, and guys who are specially equipped for this work, 10 thousand more fighters are ready to leave, and we will reach Odessa in the near future. And you’ll see concrete results.
I am not a strategist like the Department of Defense, but mistakes were made, I think they will draw conclusions. When you tell the truth, and you tell this truth even to their face…people like that, I always like to tell the truth. My people and I have spoken to all the commanders at the fronts, we have information from the field. And if today or tomorrow no changes are made to the strategy of the special military operation, I will have to go out to the leadership of the Ministry of Defence, the leadership of the country to explain to them the situation that is really happening there on the ground.The situation is very interesting, I would even say amazing.The fact that they left, gave up several towns and villages, there is a plus in this too.”

The change here that we see, is now a completely visible NATO interaction, planning, command, and control  The only piece missing is NATO troops on the ground.  The Ukie forces are being trained in the UK and in other areas in Europe and seemingly, some weaponry was kept in reserve.  There are a few things we have to say but let’s just start with a reminder that this Ukrainian ‘supposed’ win in one small area of this war, was driven by the decisions in Ramstein.

My opinion is that Russia lost this round.  But, it is only a round.  And this round signifies the NATO involvement.  The battle has changed.  We see a sea change that will need a concomitant change in Russia’s planning.  Perhaps this has been done and we do not see the whole picture.

I do not take any of the experts seriously at this time.  They are singing the Russian song (and I do too), but at the expense of honesty.  Why I say this, is exactly because of the explanations by the Russian Mod.  They never explain.  Why now and why in this manner?  I smell a rat but do not know if this is a maneuver by Russia, or if there is a real rat stinking up the corners.  We may say what we want, and we may justify anyone’s actions but we have to admit that this loss (temporary or not) has shaken the faith of many.  The main ‘faith shaker’ is of course the villages left in UkroNazi hands and reports of unbelievable cruelty to those people are already coming in.  The ones that loaded up grannies, children, suitcases, cats, dogs and chickens, and so on, and hot-footed it for the nearest border point with Russia or deep into Russian territory are the lucky ones.

The first explanation:

Russian troops that operate near Balakleya and Izyum to be redeployed for reinforcement at Donetsk direction in order to reach preestablished objectives of special military operation

◽️ With this purpose, Izyum-Balakleya group of troops had been redeployed to the Donetsk People’s Republic within 72 hours. Various deceptive and demonstrative manoeuvres had been carried out marking real action of the troops within the abovementioned operation.

◽️ The enemy had been under powerful fire attacks with the involvement of aviation, missile troops and artillery for preventing any damage to Russian troops.

◽️ Over 2,000 Ukrainian and foreign militants, as well as more than 100 units of armoured equipment and artillery have been eliminated within 72 hours.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4051

The question is whether these deceptive and demonstrative maneuvers were successful and how we count the success?  Clearly up to today, NO, because the Russian and Allied forces withdrew.   Tomorrow is another day though and this is not a sprint.

The second explanation:

◽️ Russian troops that operate near Balakleya and Izyum to be redeployed for reinforcement (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4051) at Donetsk direction in order to reach preestablished objectives of special military operation.

🇷🇺 Servicemen of Izyum-Balakleya group of troops show their courage and bravery while conducting intense combats against AFU units. Footage of Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower systems (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4054) and 2S-19 Msta-S artillery systems (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4053) in combat action.

💥 High-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces has neutralised (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4048) the headquarters of 5th National Guard Brigade, the provisional bases of the units from 92nd Mechanised Brigade and Kraken nationalist group deployed near Balakleya and Chuguyev (Kharkov region), as well as the command post of 54th Mechanised Brigade deployed near Ray-Aleksandrovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

📹 Russian Defence Ministry has published footage of Western MD Msta-B 152-mm howitzer crews (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4047) destroying AFU armoured vehicles and fortified positions.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4057

The only difference between the two explanations is that in this one, the second one, they paid attention to their soldiers, who are also crying out and wondering if they did a bad job.  I don’t think they did.  They did the job given to them by their commanders.  Anyway, this is a fine thing to do and shows care for soldiers.   Inherently there is nothing wrong with withdrawing forces if they were under stress.   It is wise of course, but ipso facto, one cannot win a war with forces that are not on the battlefield.

This is an existential battle for Russia and for all of us.  The outcry in the Russian sphere, and from the Russian supporters because Russia withdrew from the territory, is massive.  Of course, the moment one moves even a little against the prevailing experts or takes a look at the eddies on the sides of this river, one is suddenly a bot.

The Russian sources and experts are suppressing voices that need to be heard.  This is just about equal to the massive bot and troll operation that is being waged now.  If you have an honest voice, do not let anyone suppress it, and this is only possible if our level of discernment is very well developed.

In my opinion, the Russians must come clean and own this one, state in very careful terms that they were not successful in maintaining the territory as Russian, and yes, they are changing their focus to “Donetsk direction in order to reach preestablished objectives of special military operation.”  But, why even say that?  They could just announce that they are withdrawing troops from what is generally known as the Karkov direction, to the Donetsk direction, if they have to say anything at all.   What is this misdirection by spelling out so-called ‘deceptive maneuvers?   We’re dealing with the Russian forces who are now renowned for operational security.

The fact that we are treated to explanations, is in itself problematic.

  • Is Russia losing the war with Ukraine?  No, absolutely not and not now, and not in the foreseeable future.  We have had during this +6 months, literally non-stop Russian victory.  This one defeat is meaningless in the big scheme of things, yet, I bet it is not meaningless for NATO.
  • Is Russia losing the proxy war with NATO?  No, absolutely not, and as Mr Putin said and I paraphrase from memory:  “We have not even started anything.”
  • Have we seen the end of this?  Absolutely not.  We have not seen the end of this in terms of people that feel betrayed, and we have not seen the end of this in terms of possible adjustments to the shape of the war.  Again I ask if one side performs a SMO, and the other side performs a WAR, how long before the situation morphs?

I pray for the Russian decision-makers.

Despite the shaken faith, Russia did count plenty of coup.  On the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog and Kharkiv directions from September 6 to 10, the losses of the Kiev regime amounted to over 4 thousand killed and more than 8 thousand wounded.

There are also reports coming in with photo and video evidence that the Russian soldiers are protecting the huge columns of refugees fleeing the area, and very easy prey for the Ukrainian forces while in convoy on the roads.  I have personally been part of such circumstances and under military protection, where one did not know whether the helicopter overhead was friend or foe.  War is exceedingly cruel and the trauma lays itself down almost on a cellular level, to be there forever.

I pray that this war is over speedily, although the political objectives must still play out.

4 Comments

  • amarynth

    The murdering and looting is starting.

    [Forwarded from War in Ukraine, Subtitled]
    Ukrainian troops are engaged in wide-spread looting and murder in the captured territories of Kharkov region: according to the sources on the ground, looting groups of Ukrainian militants broken into the basement, where a wealthy Roma family, owning a large restaurant in Izyum, was hiding from the shelling, and requested to hand over valuables at a gunpoint. When they declined, the head of the family was shot on the spot.

    Another reported case, apparently in Izyum, too, was an assault on the house of a local businessman. The Banderites blew the door, the owner was killed by the explosion before he could even open the door.

    Similar messages arrive from Kupyansk, where groups of Ukrainian militants go door-to-door, raiding private apartments and houses. #context

  • SKovacs

    Indeed, it has been a NATO war since the beginning (2014) if not earlier. By now the scale and complexity is different/vastly bigger. It is rather a civilizational war with a bloody fratricide instigated by outsiders that is channeling the attention of the global circus audience.

    It appears that the fast nature of news travelling via internet is turning the people into binge movie watchers, who want instant gratification/confirmation of their version of the events, almost believing that they write and edit the script on the fly, forecast events, judge characters on the stage and all such nonsense. if there is a slight delay in action, or the scene of action changes, the loudest binge watchers freak out and flood the digital world with nonsense. Looks like the “reality shows” of the last decade or so have infiltrated souls across the globe. I find this sickening for several reasons – from your previous posts i believe you know what i mean.

    The good news is, that the General Staff maintains its composure, is doing what it has to do to achieve the stated goals of the operation, and have no interest and no time to entertain such sideshows. Perhaps they acknowledge that it plays into their hands in many ways.

    To the binge watchers – consider these: electronic messages fly at light speed, war planes at sound speed, tanks move at the speed of a mountain biker on horizontal pavement, and infantry crawls, walks and sometimes jogs. SO, military maneuvers are not happening instantly. Have PATIENCE, Trust and Faith!

    Just imagine for a minute, that for every innocent civilian killed by VSU shelling of the Donbass settlements, hundreds of VSU conscripts are dying in a war that they can’t escape and probably don’t want to fight. Yes, there are obviously tens of thousands of nazis and sickos on the ukie side, but bear in mind, most grunts are innocent muzhiks (not all are “ethnic ukrainians”!), who are forced into a meat grinder – often at gunpoint. These are real lives sacrificed for What?Whom?
    In this context reported isolated cases of murder by some sick person or group is another psychological distortion of perception, even if the reported case is true.

    Meanwhile, the shrewd city slickers and sons of influential people of military age are eroding the pavements of western cities (often in luxury cars) abusing the hospitality of their (often idiotic/ credulous and prejudiced) hosts.

  • amarynth

    SKovacs, I don’t think the reports are either isolated or by sick people (yes of course, those outliers do exist).

    Rather it is institutionalized. There were no regular troops in those villages. It is an old problem, that the doom-mongers (Strelkov, Cassad and that whole bunch) quite legitimately identified quite early on – the problem being that liberated villages were not safeguarded adequately.

    I find no value in trying to make a value judgment between which Ukie crimes, murders, and mayhem is less important and more important. Whatever the reason for this withdrawal, the opportunity is again created for institutionalized slaughter.

    That is the reality. But what I see in the many many discussions is that people are trying to pick themselves up now and move forward. This is another human tragedy and unfortunately, both sides are using it for propaganda. The pro-Russian doom-mongers, as well as the Ukrainians now have a keyboard warrior instruction out to their cadres .. and this is too close to the bone to have no effect. It is “Putin abandoned his people’ – and this is what is being put out in the net’o’sphere. It calls into question the basic reasons for this war – which are denazification and demilitarization. Those are facts, and they do not point fingers. Yet, it is a fact that the Ukraine inherited a lot of new human shields.

    This however epitomizes a change in this war and we will have to wait and see how this is handled. Perhaps the attacks on power production plants is one way. It sure is dark out there in the Ukraine.

  • Lone Wolf

    @ Amarynth

    Is Russia losing the war with Ukraine? No, absolutely not and not now, and not in the foreseeable future. We have had during this +6 months, literally non-stop Russian victory. This one defeat is meaningless in the big scheme of things, yet, I bet it is not meaningless for NATO.
    ———————————-

    No, Russia is not losing the war to Ukraine, that’s an impossibility. In Kharkiv, however, Russia lost the optics through which the SMO has been seen as a successful operation. Russia lost another PR war, the main purpose of the “Ramstein” offensive. Russia’s shield was dented, even if in appearance. The masses-at-large don’t understand military strategy, the propaganda they consume tells them Ukraine is winning, is kicking Russians out of Ukraine, cheer up, “Glory to Ukraine.”

    Orderly retreat? What’s that? Thousands of NATO/Ukrainians mercs/soldiers KIA/WIA? Russian lies. No strategic gains? What is that? 10,000 Russians killed. Oh yes! We are winning!

    On MSM paper and online, Ukraine is winning, no doubt.

    The setback for Russia is perception, and, perception is not everything, but almost.

    An image that took lots of blood to create was wiped out in about 4 days. The calibration of PP across Ukraine was more of a PR stunt than a military operation, it was too little, too late. Suppressing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure early on would have greatly contributed to disrupt Ukraine’s ratline piling up their military arsenal, breaking down their logistics.

    The PP bombing was intended to lift the morale of all of those who either panicked, lost hope, or sunk into defeatism. As it is, the operation was a non-sequitur, an opportunity coup with no major consequences on the current Ukrainian offensive. Now we learn the SMO is about to become a Counter-Terrorist operation, déjà vu Chechnya/Syria.

    We have to learn in detail what that means, have to wait until it becomes public knowledge.

    The recent experience has left many of us cautious and skeptical, even though our commitment to the war against the nazis is unbreakable. We will support Russia to the bitter end, for reasons of love, history, personal attachments, and because of our fierce opposition to the dark forces of the Collective West Russia is the only one daring to confront.

    We will, however, call a spade a spade, whenever we see the Russian leaders equivocating the path to victory.

    Lone Wolf