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An economic discussion

Sometimes when you sweep away what you have been doing, and open space for new, the new comes in.  It is just how the universe works for me at least sometimes.

What happened is that I am now part of an economic discussion with some heavy economists about the structuring of the new multipolar world.  The idea is that we’ve seen some things happening, but that we have no real ground under our feet as yet, as to How Does It Work.

Part of this discussion is developing a manifesto, and institutional and organizational support will be sought for that when completed.  I get to comment on the work and I’m just thrilled to bits.

The current question is how do we actually make an economic underpinning for the new?  What are the rules?  How do you set principles?  How do you rectify the previous actions of kleptocrats and get a large stolen or bought at cost part of the world out of their hands?  Structurally, Legally and with a document that the various strengthening poles of the world can interact and work.

I thought to put this here, as Col (our farmer) would perhaps have comments and I open those questions for comments.

My first comment on the work was that we do see cooperation (and I quoted these examples):

  • The cooperative venture, Mexico, Bolivia, and others, of self-developing and locally financing their combined Lithium wealth.  This is not only planned for extraction, but also for full cycle development.
  • Another example that I am thinking of is the very precarious state of Afghanistan, with a partial solution developed between them and Russia, and they are even exchanging raisins and medicinal herbs (a few other products as well) in this deal.  Who could have thought, raisins .. both developing internal agricultural fortitude, and developing their own product, as well as supporting this poor country in travail?  That is good economics right there.
  • In terms of ‘Forgive them their debts, we have the stellar example of China forgiving debts to something like 17 African countries.

Well, there are some heavyweights there, and they closed my mouth quick (grins), with this question:  OK, we see cooperation!  How do we institutionalize that because that is the next step?   And then, the hard part:  How do you transition TO the debt writedowns (refusal to pay the IMF and bondholders), tax policy, de-privatization, and protective tariffs to re-develop food self-sufficiency? That will require withdrawing from the IMF/World Bank opposition.

Yikes, transitioning to multi-polarity is not for wussies!  All comments welcome!

 

 

6 Comments

  • North East

    What you’re describing is a much bigger task than what the heavyweight economists imagine. It’s not just economics – that is the least hardest part. There’s a political and military front that has to be worked lest the gains in one area are nulled by losses in the others.The biggest thing standing in the way (and most overlooked in my opinion) is corruption. The political and legal system has to be reformed in such a way that corruption is not tolerated no matter who is involved. Heads of state, government officials, businesses, the worker toiling in the field. That means a capable system for detecting corruption, swift investigation and judgement, and very severe punishments appropriate to the level. Higher level corruption will need much harsher punishments/restitutions – exactly the opposite of how it works in the US. The credibility (risk/reward of cheating) of the anti-corruption measures would have to be publically verifiable on a daily basis to have a measurable impact on society. It’s still necessary at whatever cost, including lives unfortunately.

    • amarynth

      Working through the written work that has been pulled together, the first thought that came into my head: First, you need an honest man. And by that I mean a human, man or woman.

  • Salty Dawg

    When I see a group of real experts joining to build a manifesto and how to manual toward a multipolar world/system it tells me that the MP movement is gaining momentum. Go Amarynth and keep us posted/involved …

    • Doe

      Economical development of multipolar world has, at least 3 dimensions: security, financial, and technological. Western block have forced the rest to obey them via financial-neo liberals, military-neocons, and technological means. They have lost the military race. Russia, Iran and China have caught up technologically in many areas- that’s the main reason sanctions against Russia failed. Financial dimension is the one lacking. The trick is that you want to destroy $, while avoiding-minimizing the hard landing/crash. It seems that sudden crash of financial system caused by “Russian cyber attack” is unavoidable. After the crash banisters want to own everything for their principal and interest. Poor countries should just give them the finger, and get loans from friendly countries. After the crash IMF, feds, ecb, etc. Will evaporate. Not without a fight, a nasty and unredictable one. But after transition period, things should be smooth sailing. The new currency will be based on brics+ basket currency+ crude, gas, precious metal and other commodities. RedShields and other trillioners can have no role in creation of this multi national, multi commodity banking system. They have to be kept out. No more privately owned banksters left in charge of printing money. Never, never, never again.

  • Col...'the farmer from NZ'

    @Amarynth…”How do we institutionalize that because that is the next step?  And then, the hard part: How do you transition TO the debt writedowns (refusal to pay the IMF and bondholders), tax policy, de-privatization, and protective tariffs to re-develop food self-sufficiency? That will require withdrawing from the IMF/World Bank opposition.”

    I have just this morning collected together some of my earlier observations [some of which I have already aired] that directly relate to this huge subject. I post this in the hope that it will at least aid in kick-starting the very much-needed conversation.

    On a population basis ~ 90% of the world and basically the entire global south, with the notable exception of NZ and Australia [both yapping Natostan lapdogs], are transitioning away from the status quo already. This will in turn disenfranchise Mr Global and his most prized assets, the BIS, IMF, and WB.

    Humanity desperately needs an international Nuremberg-style tribunal assembled and made up of judges, counsel, and prosecutors that are completely removed from any influence from Mr Global. The case law from the ICC Rome Statute and precedent from the original Nuremberg Tribunal are a perfect foundation.

    The Rome Statute is almost as though it was purpose-built for an instance of a massive globally orchestrated criminal act like this current Covid genocide and entrapment program. This time, and once and for all, the banksters must be held to account, otherwise, humanity will never progress past our present disastrously dysfunctional state.

    The train has already left the station. This is the beginning of the end of a system that came into play when in 1910 seven of the world’s most powerful banksters took a clandestine midnight train trip from New Jersey to Jekyll Island in Georgia. This was in effect a club that represented approximately one-sixth of the total wealth of the world. Their subsequent extraordinary sleight of hand came to dominate the financial system of the world, transform it into a speculative casino for the benefit of the 0.1%, and enable them to perpetually prey on the labour and expertise of the remainder.

    The theft of the US Central Bank was hashed out in the 10-day meeting and this came to “fruition” in 1913, the year the completely unconstitutional Federal Reserve Act became law. Of course, it is absolutely no coincidence WW1 broke out the following year and has continued ever since. Along the way, all we did was win some battles… we never actually won the war… simply because the financial kleptocrats have never been held to account for any of their crimes… their dynasties have not only survived but have literally flourished along the way.

    Even at Bretton Woods, the entities that orchestrated and funded the war actually had their representatives on board in order to help draw up the new blueprint for continued global financial control that has continued to rape and pillage humanity to this very day.

    These are the very same entities/dynasties behind the Covid debacle, Ukraine and 90% of the mayhem ever since they were handed the keys to the counterfeit money machine on that fateful day just before Xmas in 1913. Trust me… WW1 has so far lasted for 109 years. We now must win this final battle once and for all and dismember the beast.

    The unravelling process is already full steam ahead and will result in one hell of a lot of pain, including for the Natostan countries who are so desperately flailing around and endeavouring to hold onto the extraordinary privileges they have enjoyed for more than a century.

    I see the Mr Global agenda, along with a completely degenerate kleptocracy, as being so totally embedded in the US culture and political landscape today, that there is no longer any future hope for that country other than to endure complete disintegration. The hope that remains is that something functional might subsequently rise up out of the smouldering ashes.

    The US’s Govt debt is 94 -125% of GDP… depending of course on who you actually believe. The real problem for their economy, however, is the truly staggering total liability per citizen, which last time I checked the debt clock, was an astonishing $511,000 per citizen. From memory, this figure works out at ~$800,000 per taxpayer. This figure of course includes social security liability, medicare, and unfunded liabilities. 

    Going forward I envisage a scenario which would inevitably include a breakup of the Federal system and probably a succession of different states to attain sovereignty. Although clearly, this would be tremendously painful and destructive in the transition, IMO this meltdown would be on balance a positive in the long run for both US Mainstreet and humanity as a whole.

    I am tremendously excited about the emergence of the new Zone B alliance, especially given its huge momentum since Putin’s masterstroke financial put, and in dealing with the Ukraine debacle. This has the makings of a renaissance of humanity, both financially and socially, unlike anything in our global history has ever seen.

    NZ meanwhile, sits at a relatively modest figure of 46% Govt Debt: GDP. However, our internal debt is absolutely crippling going forward now with a combination of rising inflation, interest rates, massive increases in all essential living expenses, and no effective fiscal or monetary tools available to address the problem.

    I can’t find the figure for Chinese debt per person including internal debt but if you look at their per capita national debt it is 15x lower than Japan’s and 11x lower than the US.

    The top 10 countries ranked by national debt are all part of the Natostan club with Japan and the US filling the two highest positions [2 of the top 3 countries by GDP in the world] and all of the other positions except for Canada and the UK are filled by EU members. The EU is in total disarray already and with its number one economy Germany basically being instructed to commit financial hare-Kari by its occupier, it will be the EU that will be one of the biggest cot cases in this impending systemic meltdown. 

    The grim reality here is that 5 of the 7 of the nations ranked by national debt are also ranked in the top GDP countries of the world… the exceptions of course being China and India. Add to this the fact that the total global debt of the world is 353% of GDP [at ~$300 trillion] and the collective global economy is a complete train wreck.

    Note that the 353% figure does not include unfunded liabilities… as such the true total debt is mind-numbing and completely unsolvable in the absence of huge debt jubilees. Of course, debt jubilees have their element of tragedy too, as every debt as one party’s asset, has a corresponding creditor counterparty. This has all manner of serious potential tragedy, especially for the pension funds.

    To give some historical context to the potential mayhem in the markets, look no further than the 1929-1932 depression where stocks imploded by ~90%. Remember too that this was caused by relatively localised casino-like behaviour. This was only a tiny fraction of what we witness in today’s outrageous global financial fairy tale land. If 1929 is any guide at all, then a 90% crash in stocks would be almost a best-case scenario. And where would this leave the Zone A City Of London, Wall Street cabal?

    WHO IS THE REAL FINANCIAL JUGGERNAUGHT?… well, in terms of PPP* GDP, China actually overtook the US GDP way back in 2014 and now stands at ~$30 trillion compared to the US at $20 trillion. Of course, no one wants to admit that, least of all the UN, the IMF or the WB who habitually make up all manner of whoppers in which they can’t even agree on the figures between themselves. I would have thought they could have at least tried to coordinate their lies.*[Purchasing Power Parity]

    And how about some good news then, just to finish off with? Actually it just so happens that there is a complete rescue model right under our noses. It simply involves bypassing the global kleptocratic private banking cabal which in turn disenfranchises the FED, BOJ, BOE, BIS, IMF, the WB collective and their financial stranglehold on the global economy.

    Joining the Zone B collective does precisely that. It already has huge momentum and forms the parallel replacement system for the old City of London/Wall Street kleptocrats.

    And how novel is this? In this model money is not created simply out of thin air as debt, instead, currencies are created that are backed by a multitude of tangible assets. In this way, the thieving banksters of the world are once and for all rendered completely irrelevant and unable to continue plying their trade.

    True the transition period for the developing countries will be tremendously destructive as many of the here-to low-interest rate loans were denominated in US dollars. In the ensuing mayhem, and because the US dollar will actually strengthen, at least temporarily in relation to these currencies, there will be a huge burden placed on them if they attempt to pay back their loan principle.

    Methinks they should simply default, wait for the majority of the international community to do likewise, and then declare these loans cynically predatory and as such illegitimate. If Zone B does this in concert then good luck with the Zone A private banksters in being able to enforce anything.

    The new model is already here… right there under our noses in fact, and ready for any country in the world to join up. And the one simple rule to qualify… well… just play nice… that’s it!!! 

    An economic renaissance that could improve the future wealth of the entire world is in the making… all we have to do as individual sovereign states is to reach out and embrace it.

    WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE?

    Cheers and regards to all
    Col

    PS I am currently working on a summary bringing together all of the huge collective multi-trillion dollar initiatives begun by the BRI, SCO, and BRIICS+ members. I hope to have that finished within the next few days.

    • amarynth

      First, looking forward to seeing your work Col! I have this thing going that seems to never finish, and that is a collection of the new organizational structures .. SCO etc

      I would like to start with one of your first sentence: “This will in turn disenfranchise Mr Global and his most prized assets, the BIS, IMF, and WB.”

      Yes, and we see that.

      The focus of this initiative though is re-enfranchisement of a fair global system. We can trade all we like but if we trade in the old ways, we will have the same results.

      What has become clear to me, is that number one is co-operative structures. See the three examples that I mentioned.

      But then we have those that are going to have to be pulled from the current structures. I just read an article saying that a new bridge that was built in Bangladesh, was done with their own resources and they refused to take World Bank money for this initiative. (Forget the China stuff here in this article but focus on the development).https://chinaandthenewworld.wordpress.com/2022/08/29/china-has-literally-built-bridges-in-bangladesh/

      So, a second principle seems to be: Finance it yourself or with clean money.

      Now then, we get to where the IMF, World Bank etc has odious loans to countries and they have to pay it. But, the ability to pay those loans are reducing across the world. And countries had to put up their collective wealth to get these loans. We’ve all read about putting up as collateral perhaps buildings and land or manufacturing ability at a fraction of the value of those assets, just to get a loan. An example is the vast tracs of land sold of in the Ukraine to multi-nationals.

      A principle has been mooted. Tax them out of existence, and this is something that countries can do individually. In other words, recoup the cost of the loan by placing taxation requirements on the multi-nationals involved and base the taxation requirements on a fair price for the assets put up as collateral.

      I’m still thinking about this.

      The disenfranchisement is going like gangbusters. Take a look! https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3190316/china-slowly-undercutting-us-influence-latin-america-5-new